US Macroeconomic Assumptions 2016

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This dataset shows the long-run projections for the US agricultural sector to 2025 includes assumptions for the US and international macroeconomic conditions and projections for major commodities, farm income, and the US agricultural trade value. Values are from the publication United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Projections to 2025, February 2016.

Complexity

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) long-term agricultural projections presented in this report are a departmental consensus on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector.
The projections in this report were prepared during October through December 2015, with the Agricultural Act of 2014 assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, longrun scenario about what would be expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislation and other specific assumptions.

Critical long-term assumptions are made for the US and international macroeconomic conditions, US and foreign agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect global agricultural supply and demand. Normal weather is assumed. Changes in any of these assumptions can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes.
The report uses as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2015.

The projections analysis was conducted by interagency committees in USDA and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service had the lead role in preparing the departmental report. The projections and the report were reviewed and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include the World Agricultural Outlook Board; the Economic Research Service; the Farm Service Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency; the Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

Date Created

2016-02-01

Last Modified

2016-02-01

Version

2016-02-01

Update Frequency

Annual

Temporal Coverage

2016-02-01 to 2017-01-01

Spatial Coverage

United States

Source

John Snow Labs => United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Source License URL

John Snow Labs Standard License

Source License Requirements

N/A

Source Citation

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Release 2016.

Keywords

US Agricultural Projections, Projections for Major Commodities, USDA Agricultural Projections, US Macroeconomic Conditions, US Agricultural Supply and Demand Report

Other Titles

Agricultural Commodity Prices 2016, US Long Range Weather Forecast 2016

Name Description Type Constraints
ComponentComponent of a liststring-
ItemList of agricultural sectorstring-
Year_2014Project amount in year 2014numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2015Project amount in year 2015numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2016Project amount in year 2016numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2017Project amount in year 2017numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2018Project amount in year 2018numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2019Project amount in year 2019numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2020Project amount in year 2020numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2021Project amount in year 2021numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2022Project amount in year 2022numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2023Project amount in year 2023numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2024Project amount in year 2024numberlevel : Ratio
Year_2025Project amount in year 2025numberlevel : Ratio
ComponentItemYear_2014Year_2015Year_2016Year_2017Year_2018Year_2019Year_2020Year_2021Year_2022Year_2023Year_2024Year_2025
Personal consumption expendituresInflation measures
Labor and population percent change1.91.91.310.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7
Personal consumption expenditures percent change1.61.21.61.71.92222222
Labor and population percent change0.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7
Gross Domestic Product percent change2.42.332.82.72.52.42.32.32.32.32.3
Disposable personal income percent change22.42.221.91.71.51.51.51.51.51.5
Labor compensation per hour percent change2.732.42.72.72.62.62.62.62.62.62.6
Interest rates, percent Bank prime rate3.253.253.94.75.25.86.26.26.26.26.26.2
Disposable personal income percent change4.24.44.54.54.54.44.34.24.24.24.24.2
Disposable personal income percent change3.43.63.73.73.73.73.53.53.53.53.53.5
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