HIV Incidence Prevalence and Mortality

$179 / year

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), estimated the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors globally, for 21 regions, and for 195 countries and territories. This dataset was also published in The Lancet in July 2016 in “Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality for HIV, 1980-2015: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.”


The dataset include estimates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for 2015 and HIV-specific mortality for patients on ART. For countries without high-quality vital registration data, the estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. The estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent.
The estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). An open-source version of EPP was used and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, the cohort incidence bias adjustment model was developed to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. The statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification was corrected.

Date Created


Last Modified




Update Frequency


Temporal Coverage

1980-01 to 2015-12

Spatial Coverage



John Snow Labs; Global Health Data Exchange;

Source License URL

Source License Requirements


Source Citation

Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) Disability Weights. Seattle, United States Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2016.


HIV AIDS Incidence, Global HIV Incidence, HIV Prevalence, Antiretroviral Therapy

Other Titles

HIV AIDS Incidence Prevalence and Mortality, Estimated HIV Incidence Prevalence and Mortality Rates

Location_NameLocation Namestring-
New_Infections_In_ThousandsCountry-specific estimates of new HIV infections in thousandsnumberlevel : Ratio
New_Infections_UI95_PercentageCountry-specific estimates of new HIV infections in thousands (95% Uncertainty Interval)string-
PLWH_In_ThousandsCounts of People Living With HIV/AIDS in thousandsnumberlevel : Ratio
PLWH_PercentageCounts of People Living With HIV/AIDS in thousands (95% Uncertainty Interval)string-
HIV_AIDS_Deaths_In_ThousandsCounts of HIV/AIDS deaths in thousandsnumberlevel : Ratio
HIV_AIDS_Deaths_PercentageCounts of HIV/AIDS deaths in thousands (95% Uncertainty Interval)string-
ART_Coverage_Per_100_PLWHAntiretroviral Therapy coveragenumberlevel : Ratio
ART_Coverage_PercentageAntiretroviral Therapy coverage (% of people living with HIV)string-
Age_Standardized_Incidence_Rate_ARTAntiretroviral Therapy Age-Standardized Incidence Ratenumberlevel : Ratio
Age_Standardized_Incidence_PercentageAntiretroviral Therapy Age-Standardized Incidence Percentagestring-
Age_Standardized_Prevalence_Rate_ARTAntiretroviral Therapy Age-Standardized Prevalence Ratenumberlevel : Ratio
Age_Standardized_Prevalence_PercentageAntiretroviral Therapy Age-Standardized Prevalence Percentagestring-
Age_Standardized_Mortality_Rate_ARTAntiretroviral Therapy Age-Standardized Mortality Ratenumberlevel : Ratio
Age_Standardized_Mortality_PercentageAntiretroviral Therapy Age-Standardized Mortality Percentagestring-
American Samoa0.020.01-0.0428.4922.61-36.970.04-0.06-