UK Measures of Uncertainty With Proportional Contributions

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This dataset shows the Methodology for measuring uncertainty in ONS (Office for National Statistics) local authority mid-year population estimates

Complexity

Local authority population estimates are calculated using the cohort component method. In this approach, the previous year’s population is aged-on by one year and then adjusted for births, deaths, net international migration, net internal migration and special populations (such as members of the armed forces and prisoners). The data for these adjustments come from several sources. Births and deaths come from the General Register Office administrative registers. International migration estimates come from the International Passenger Survey, supplemented in the case of in-migration by a range of administrative sources. Data on asylum seekers and their dependants come from the Immigration and Nationality Directorate of the Home Office. Internal migration data are primarily based on the NHS (National Health Service) Patient Register.

Adjustments are also made for special population sub-groups that are not captured in the international and internal migration estimates, for example, members of the armed forces and prisoners.

The estimation process is repeated each year, starting from the 2011 Census base and rolled forward using the cohort component method. Uncertainty from international and internal migration includes accumulated uncertainty from previous years rolled forward, plus new uncertainty for the given year. This means that the uncertainty accumulates over time. The longer the lapse since census, the more uncertainty there will be in the estimates. A fuller description of the methodology for the mid-year population estimates is in ONS (Office for National Statistics) (2016).

Measuring uncertainty in the mid-year population estimates is complex due to the number of components included and because the cohort-component approach relies on a range of estimation procedures and data sources, including census, survey and administrative data. The various sources are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors including capture and recording errors, coverage issues, time lags and intercensal drift. For many sources, we do not have comprehensive and quantifiable information on non-sampling error. Also, sources that are good comparators for the mid-year estimates, or components of them, tend to have been used in their production and so are not independent of the estimation process itself.

Date Created

2017-11-30

Last Modified

2017-11-30

Version

2017-11-30

Update Frequency

Annual

Temporal Coverage

2011-2016

Spatial Coverage

United Kingdom

Source

John Snow Labs; Office for National Statistics;

Source License URL

Source License Requirements

N/A

Source Citation

N/A

Keywords

Local Authority Population Estimates, Measures of Uncertainty, Statistical Measures of Uncertainty, Measuring Uncertainty, Migration Estimates, Uncertainty Calculator, Measurement Uncertainty

Other Titles

UK Measures of Statistical Uncertainty Summary, UK Methodology for Measuring Uncertainty

NameDescriptionTypeConstraints
Geographic_RegionGeographic Region Namestring-
CountyCounty Name of the local authoritystring-
Specific_AreaSpecific Area Name of the local authoritystring-
Local_Authority_CodeA unique area code assigned to local authoritystring-
YearMeasuring yearintegerlevel : Nominal
Uncertainty_Measure_Percent_PopulationMeasure of Uncertainty Percentage by Populationnumberlevel : Ratio
Percent_Contribution_2011_CensusContribution Percentage with respect to 2011 Censusintegerlevel : Ratio
Percent_Contribution_International_MigrationUncertainty Percentage Contribution International Migrationintegerlevel : Ratio
Percent_Contribution_Internal_MigrationUncertainty Percentage Contribution Internal Migrationnumberlevel : Ratio
Bias_Adjusted_Confidence_Interval_Lower_BoundLower Bound Adjustmentnumberlevel : Ratio
Bias_Adjusted_Confidence_Interval_Upper_BoundUpper Bound Adjustmentintegerlevel : Ratio
Midyear_EstimateUncertainty Estimate for the Midyearintegerlevel : Ratio
Geographic_RegionCountySpecific_AreaLocal_Authority_CodeYearUncertainty_Measure_Percent_PopulationPercent_Contribution_2011_CensusPercent_Contribution_International_MigrationPercent_Contribution_Internal_MigrationBias_Adjusted_Confidence_Interval_Lower_BoundBias_Adjusted_Confidence_Interval_Upper_BoundMidyear_Estimate
SOUTH EASTWest SussexWorthingE0700022920161
EASTLutonE0600003220121.3781171200342211344205843
EASTLutonE0600003220131.6258402201390214588207989
EASTLutonE0600003220141.7252453203905218019210962
EASTLutonE0600003220151.9639583206520222900214710
EASTLutonE0600003220162.2228693207393226189216791
EASTBedfordE0600005520120.6682108157157161257159207
EASTThurrockE0600003420121.599811154581164485159533
EASTEssexHarlowE0700007320120.648785816428371082676
EASTEssexMaldonE0700007420120.959703607636307361918