Commercial disappearance data for milk and dairy products is provided by ERS (Economic Research Service). It includes total commercial disappearance, domestic commercial disappearance, and the elements that go into calculating commercial disappearance numbers. Monthly data are provided from 1995 to the present.
Relationships are expressed in the following equations:
– Total commercial supply = Beginning commercial stocks + Production + Imports
– Net Government removals = Price support purchases through the Dairy Products Price Support Program + Exports under the Dairy Export Incentive Program – Unrestricted sales of Government stocks
– Total commercial disappearance = Total commercial supply – Net Government removals – Commercial ending stocks
– Domestic commercial disappearance = Total commercial disappearance – Commercial exports
Four tables are provided for commercial disappearance of milk in all dairy products:
– Milk-equivalent milk-fat basis
– Milk-equivalent skim-solids basis
– Milk fat
– Skim solids
Calculation of estimated commercial disappearance of milk in all products is very similar to the calculation for product categories. An exception is the deduction of farm use to estimate milk marketings.
Milk marketings = Milk production – Farm use
Total commercial supply = Beginning commercial stocks + Milk marketings + Imports
USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), publishes farm use data on annual basis. To estimate monthly farm use of milk, ERS prorates the annual number grounded on the number of days in each month. For each month in the current year, ERS assumes that farm use is equal to the estimated monthly farm use from the previous year.
Milk is made up of water, milk fat, and skim solids (protein, lactose, ash, and trace elements). Milk equivalents are measured on both a milk-fat basis and a skim-solids basis. The milk-fat and skim-solids content of milk vary from year to year, month to month, cattle breed to cattle breed, and even cow to cow. Most farm milk in the United States averages about 87.5 percent water, 8.8 percent skim solids, and 3.7 percent milk fat.
To account for the supply and use of milk in all products, it is necessary to either account for the milk solids (milk fat or skim solids) or the equivalent amount of milk (on a milk-fat or skim-solids basis) associated with commercial stocks, imports, exports, and net Government removals of the products. Conversion factors associated with milk fat and skim solids are used for this accounting.